Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

钢铁行业成本核算制度研究

为了解决钢铁行业普遍亏损、经营困难等问题，对当前钢铁行业成本核算面临的各种问题进行分析，相应的提出新制度实施的必要性。而后详细阐述了钢铁行业成本核算制度的基本步骤，且针对行业现有问题说明了新制度的优越性，提出可以选择性使用的作业成本法，最后阐释了新制度可能会对钢铁行业产生的影响和企业在面对新制度想要改善目前严峻形势必须用辩证的眼光看待这一现象，具体问题具体分析，对症下药才是关键。     

Information technology developments of logistics service providers in Hungary

The objective of this research is to examine the role of sector-specific information technology (IT) developments and their significance in terms of the revenue and earnings before tax of Logistics Service Providers (LSPs), as well as the impact of these developments on the flexibility and integration of LSPs. A survey questionnaire was conducted with 284 LSPs participants. The data provided by the 51 responding enterprises provided a representative sample for the analysis of the sample population and the drawing of general and relevant conclusions related to basic population. It can be concluded that their revenue, earnings before tax and degree of integration into the supply chain depend on the sector-specific IT developments carried out by the given enterprise. IT investments will remain important in the future and the introduction and leveraging the best technologies may yield competitive advantages and higher financial rewards for LSPs.     

信息技术产业创新发展的演化复杂路径研究

信息技术产业创新发展的研究具有现实意义。通过文献研究建立信息技术产业创新演化复杂系统研究框架，汇总认知角度的创新层次、产业演化以及演化研究工具和方法等相关研究情况，认为应重视动态、演化和复杂系统的特点，政府介入推动自组织网络的高效率演化和发展，促进网络化学习，避免低端依赖，促进创新效率。创新系统研究应包含认知领域的相关成果，利用演化计算和机器学习方法构建模型，提升对真实行为的模拟仿真和解释能力。     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.

We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.     

Valuing Initial Public Offerings Using Article 11 Pro Forma Financial Information in the Prospectus*

We investigate whether Article 11 pro forma financial information assists investors in valuing IPOs. While the SEC expects it to be helpful in assisting investment decisions, Article 11 pro forma financial information is based on registrants' understanding and assumptions, and registrants can exercise their own judgment when preparing pro forma financial statements. It is therefore an empirical question whether the information contained in pro forma financial statements is useful to investors. We examine the association between pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity and the IPO offer value and find asymmetric results. While positive pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are positively associated with the IPO offer value, negative pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are negatively associated with the IPO offer value, suggesting that negative pro forma adjustments are priced as growth opportunities. Additional analyses reveal that the association between pro forma adjustments of book value of equity and the IPO offer value varies across different time periods and industries and that pro forma adjustments of book value of equity are initially mispriced by investors. In contrast, we do not find similar results for pro forma adjustments of earnings. Further empirical tests show that the asymmetric results of mispricing of pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity may be explained by the requirements of Article 11 of Regulation S‐X for pro forma adjustments dictating that adjustments to earnings reflect only recurring items while adjustments to book value reflect both recurring and nonrecurring items.     

South African consumers' willingness to pay a premium for Karoo Lamb: The influence of subjective and objective knowledge,label information and demographics

In South Africa, Karoo Lamb is a prestigious product associated with free range production. This study examined the influence of subjective and objective Karoo Lamb knowledge, the importance of label information, and demographics on consumers' willingness to pay a premium for Karoo Lamb products. A panel of 355 consumers who had previously purchased lamb/mutton products completed an online questionnaire. The importance of Karoo Lamb label information, subjective Karoo Lamb knowledge and population group had a significant positive impact on willingness to pay a premium for Karoo Lamb. Objective Karoo Lamb knowledge and other demographics did not have a significant impact.     

Robust multivariate analysis for mixed-type data: Novel algorithm and its practical application in socio-economic research

We propose a novel method and algorithm for the analysis and clustering of mixed-type data using a hierarchical approach based on Forward Search. In our procedure, the identification of groups is based on the identification of similar trajectories and then linked to very intuitive two-dimensional maps. The proposed algorithm can use different measures for the calculation of distance in the case of mixed-type data, such as Gower’s metric and Related metric scaling. A key feature of our algorithm is its ability to discard redundant information from a given set of variables. The practical usefulness of the algorithm is illustrated through two applications of high relevance for empirical economic research. The first one focuses on comparing different indicators of environmental policy stringency in different countries. The second one applies our procedure to identify clusters of countries based on information regarding their institutional characteristics.     

Soldiers don't go mad: Shell shock and accounting intransigence in the British Army 1914-18

This research examines intransigence in accounting systems. Using historical research methods and archival sources, it explores intransigence in the Royal Army Medical Corps’ accounting systems in the context of the incidence of shell shock among British Army soldiers fighting at the battlefront during the First World War. The Army did not recognise shell shock as a medical condition and made few changes to its medical accounting systems for soldiers with shell shock. The four factors of system stability of the AGIL scheme (adaptation, goal attainment, integration, latency) are used to understand the limited medical accounting response to shell shock. This research indicates that in addition to historical and internal political reasons for intransigence, intransigence will occur unless a factor in the AGIL scheme is sufficiently impaired to make the accounting system unstable and force system change. This research finding has contemporary relevance, explaining accounting intransigence in response to issues of social concern.